Weinergate = Republican Seat

Disgraced former Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner resigned over a personal scandal involving lewd photos he sent of himself to several young women over Twitter. A special election was held in the New York 9th Congressional district to replace him and despite the huge Democratic majority of voters in the district, Republican Bob Turner won with 54% of the vote. Political analysts believe that Turner's surprise win could foreshadow a referendum on Democrats and President Obama in 2012.

I wrote about the Weinergate scandal when I started this blog. I thought it was much ado about nothing - sex scandals are so common in our Political culture. In Weiner's case, nothing illegal occured, unlike many of the other politicians who have survived prostitution scandals and are still in office (David Vitter, R-LA). He made a bad judgement call, and it was stupid. That being said, Weiner was raked over the coals and sent packing.

I think the Democratic leadership felt, just as the Republican leadership felt during the Chris Lee scandal (he posted lewd photos of himself on Craigslist, trolling for a mistress), that since the District in question was squarely in their respective political column historically, there was little risk in losing it. Lee's seat ended up being taken by Democrat Kathy Hochul - a huge upset in a traditionally Republican District. In the NY 9th District - which hasn't elected a Republican since the 1920's - Turner's win is a huge upset.

As far as this result foreshadowing a referendum on Obama and the Democrats - it's doubtful. The pundits said that Kathy Hochul's win was a referendum on the poor performance of the Republican-controlled House. More than likely, these mixed results come from changing demographics. The NY-9th has gentrified over the past several decades, gotten a little older, and is leaning more conservative. Conversely, the NY 26th District, where Kathy Hochul won, has gotten younger, more professional, and is skewing more liberal.

The 2010 Census data shows that the median age in the NY 26th has dropped from 47 to 41. As the old industries of Rochester and Buffalo fall by the wayside, and new high tech and finance comes in to replace it, the old school mentality of blue collar workers is being replaced by the tech class - which skews more to the Left than the Right. In the NY 9th, the Census shows the increase of "Babyboomers" moving into the area. Their generation has traditionally voted more for Republicans, as well as their generation being more likely to vote in Special Elections than the general public.

You probably won't read about those facts in most media because it doesn't make a very compelling story. Selling the story of political mayhem is always more lucrative, and fun! The truth is, Bob Turner's win in the NY 9th does not represent a referendum on the President and Democrats, just as Kathy Hochul's win in the NY 26th doesn't represent a referendum on Congressional Republicans. It's all about changing demographics.