This is the 1st of a 3-part series examining the
identity crisis of the GOP. This first
part deals with the demographic changes the GOP faces. The 2nd part will deal with the
implications of the party’s current platform and its various factions. The 3rd part will be about what I
think the GOP will do, what it should do, and what that means for the future of
conservative politics.
Mitt Romney lost the 2012 election to President Obama by
over 5 million votes. He lost the
Electoral College by a vote of 332-206.
The Republicans failed to win the White House. In addition to Romney’s poor performance, a
series of blunders in down-ticket races resulted in net losses in seats for the
Republicans in the Senate, which they had hoped to re-take, and in the House of
Representatives, which they still control.
Still, the message was clear, Republicans lost.
President Obama won nearly every constituency: women (55%),
African Americans (93%), Hispanics (71%), Asians (73%), Catholics (51%), Jewish
(69%), Under 40 (58%), Urban (64%), LGBT (76%).
The only constituencies Obama really lost were Whites (39%), Protestants
(43%), and those who live in small towns (42%) and rural areas (37%). When the crazy liberal pundits call the
Republican Party a party of “old, white men,” they’re not necessarily
wrong. The demographics breakdown of the
2012 election seems to give truth to that accusation.
Herein lays the 1st Challenge for Republicans:
The Demographics of the Nation are changing, and the Republican Party hasn’t
kept up with that change.
Republicans have several problems here. First, after the election, the media made a
great spectacle about how there are now more women and more minorities in
Congress than ever. However, that
diversity is VERY lopsided, and not in the Republican Party’s favor.
In the House, of the 81 women serving in that chamber, 61 of
them are Democrats and only 20 are Republicans.
Of the 42 African Americans serving in the House, 41 of them are
Democrats and only 1 is a Republican. Of
the 28 Hispanics serving in the House, 23 of them are Democrats and only 5 are
Republicans. Of the 12 Asian Americans
serving in the House, all of them are Democrats. Same goes for the 6 LGBT members of the
House.
The situation is a little different in the Senate, since the
chamber is DOMINATED by white people, with only 6 minorities equally split
between Republicans and Democrats.
However, of the 20 women serving in the Senate, 16 of them are Democrats
and only 4 of them are Republicans.
Also, the sole LGBT member of the Senate, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, is a
Democrat.
Representation matters.
People like to see folks who look like themselves representing their
interests in Washington. They want to
see folks like themselves discussing the politics of the day on Face the
Nation. The Democrats have a deep bench
of diverse voices to promote their party’s agenda. The Republicans have been working Sens. Marco
Rubio (R-FL), Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) like crazy! You need more than a token “colored” and a
token woman in order to display diversity.
Second, the Republicans have been constantly losing the
so-called “youth vote” for decades. Up
until 2004, it didn’t matter much.
However, election results are showing an uptick in the number of voters
under the age of 25 showing up at the polls.
In the 2012 election, voters under 25 made up 11% of total votes cast –
a higher percentage than any time in the past 40 years and 1 point higher than 2008’s
historic election.
In 2008, the Obama campaign and the Democratic Party
utilized technology and social media at unprecedented levels as far as politics
are concerned. They interacted with
young voters via Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. Their strategists understood that, in order
to engage younger voters, you have to go to where they are.
The Republicans’ foray into social media has been anemic, at
best. To be fair, the GOP is very
effective at engaging its base on all platforms – including social media. Where they have faltered, and the Democrats
have excelled, has been in engaging new voters.
Strategists on the Right had almost systematically dismissed the youth
vote as undependable. The resources
required to court them wouldn't be worth it because ultimately – it was
believed – they wouldn't show up on Election Day. That assumption is no longer the case, and
the GOP needs to realize that.
Third, the Hispanic Vote has doubled in 3 presidential
election cycles, and in the last 2 the Republicans lost it by a 2-1 margin or
greater. Hispanics now represent 12% of
the electorate, and by 2040 are expected to make up 28% of the electorate. Without a better showing among Hispanics,
Republicans cannot win.
The demographic shifts are most prominent in the southern
states, with huge increases in the Hispanic population in Arizona, Texas,
Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina. I’m talking about legal residents and
citizens, who can vote. If the
demographics keep shifting, states like Texas – which hasn't voted for a
Democratic President since Jimmy Carter – could switch from Red to Blue by
2020.
Highlighting Sens. Rubio and Cruz is a smart move by the
GOP, but it is hardly enough, and it has some negatives. Both Rubio and Cruz are of Cuban descent, and
Cuban Americans’ concerns and priorities aren't always in step with other
Hispanic groups. Also, with Cruz, some
conservatives aren’t happy with his Canadian upbringing. The GOP has a few others outside of
Washington, like Gov. Suzanna Martinez of New Mexico, to help.
Overall, the Republican Party has a race problem. Of 45 Republican Senators, only 3 of them are
people of color. Of 232 members of the
House of Representatives, only 6 of them are people of color. That is not good. From a purely demographic standpoint, that is
really not good.
The demographics of Congress have never matched the
demographics of the country overall, but the Democrats have made a lot of
progress in this area whereas the Republicans have remained a party of white
men. Women and minorities in Congress
who identify as Democrats outnumber those who identify as Republicans by more
than 4 to 1.
If Republicans want to win, things need to change.
No comments:
Post a Comment