Bachmann Bets the Farm on Iowa

Congresswoman and GOP Presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann must win Iowa.  If she doesn't, her political career may be over.  Her brand as a stalwart conservative and Tea Party darling should resonate with Iowa caucus voters, but political missteps, questionable claims, and downright bizarre accusations have put her at risk.  Also, the meteoric rise of Herman Cain and Rick Perry threaten to split the evangelical vote in Iowa, a situation that could pave the way for a surprise Romney win, despite his near universal hatred among conservatives.

The past week’s sudden resignation of Bachmann’s team in New Hampshire clearly demonstrates her campaign’s vulnerability – she has the adoration of social conservatives, but not the rest of the GOP.  Social conservatives seem to love her irreverent attacks on all things Government – from taxes and social policy to healthcare.  However, her more extreme and wacky pontifications on Abortion, the HPV Vaccine, and other issues have not proven to be very palatable to a large swath of the Republican electorate.  If she cannot prove herself as a viable candidate with a strong showing in Iowa, her presidential run will be over.

At the beginning of June 2011, Bachmann’s entrance in the race turned what was considered to be a dogfight between Mitt Romney and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty for the nomination on its head.  Her fiery rhetoric was exactly what the more conservative portion of the electorate was looking for.  Romney and Pawlenty seemed to represent the “Establishment” of the Republican Party.  The conservative electorate wanted something different, and Bachmann was it.

However, it appears that since the GOP electorate is trying to find someone – ANYONE – other than Mitt Romney, other candidates entered the fray.  By August, attention had turned from Bachmann to Texas Governor Rick Perry.  He appeared to be a strong social conservative but also had executive experience – being the longest serving Governor in the nation.  Perry became the new flavor of the month.  However, after a couple of disastrous debate performances, conservatives began to wonder whether or not Perry had the chops to take on Obama – a very polished debater.

Then, out of nowhere, former Godfathers Pizza CEO Herman Cain splashed onto the scene.  He became the new Flavor of the Month.  His straight-talk attitude and religious background made him a darling amongst conservatives.  Also, his 9-9-9 economic plan was something anyone could understand.  He was also the first GOP candidate to announce any sort of full-fledged plan for the economy – something that left all the other candidates scrambling to finish their own.  However, after non-partisan groups began scoring 9-9-9, it appeared that Cain may not have the substance to take on Obama.

During all of this, Michele Bachmann focused like a laser beam on Iowa.  She won the Iowa Straw Poll back in August, though Ron Paul had an unusually strong 2^nd place finish behind her – just a few hundred votes separated them.  After that, Bachmann’s national campaign started pouring all its resources into Iowa and a sizeable amount in South Carolina.  It became clear that if the Bachmann camp wanted to survive until Super Tuesday, Iowa was a ‘MUST WIN’ and South Carolina (the 3^rd contest on the Primary schedule) became hugely important.  New Hampshire, the nation’s 2^nd contest, became less of a priority.

In the press release sent out by Bachmann’s former New Hampshire staff, they cited increasing friction between their camp and the national campaign.  Not blaming Bachmann personally, rather they pointed to her national advisors that appeared to be more interested in notoriety than fielding a viable candidate.  Despite the fact that Bachmann’s main appeal had been to neoconservatives, her New Hampshire staff felt that she needed to improve her economic focus with more of her own ideas – not just repealing everything Obama had done.

The miscommunications and denials from the Bachmann camp about the staffing situation in New Hampshire do add some credence to the claims made by her former New Hampshire staff.  Those issues and her inability to stave off other firebrand conservatives have lead to fundraising difficulties for the campaign.  Last quarter, Bachmann’s campaign brought in $4.1 Million in donations.  They spent $6 Million during the same period.

Michele Bachmann’s only hope of survival is a 1^st place finish in Iowa AND a 1^st or 2^nd place finish in South Carolina.  She will not rank high in New Hampshire – unless some serious game changing events happen.  Her first debate appearance was strong and competent.  However, the longer she’s been in the spotlight, the more extreme and wacky her comments become.

 

Ed Rollins, a CNN contributor and Bachmann’s former campaign chief, has said that Michele Bachmann has the conservative credentials to win the nomination.  However, she needs to build up a policy profile to reinforce her comments and positions so she’ll remain viable.  I agree.  With great sound bites and competent policy issues to back up her comments, she could be a real contender for the GOP.  Without both, she’s just another ‘Crazy Conservative’ angling for a book deal.

Michele Bachmann – Sarah Palin 2.0.