Friday, October 28, 2011

Poll says Hillary would win BIG

A new TIME survey showed that if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic nominee for President in 2012, she would fare far better than Barack Obama against the Republican candidates.  Clinton beats Mitt Romney by 17 points, 55% to 38%.  Obama barely tops Romney, 46% to 43%, in the same poll.  Against Rick Perry, Clinton gets 58% to Perry's 32%.  Obama wins with 50% to Perry's 38%.  And against new Republican frontrunner Herman Cain, Clinton gets 56% to Cain's 34%.  Obama gets 49% to Cain's 37%.  

Secretary Clinton is currently the most popular national figure in politics, with an approval rating of 66% in recent polls.  Though she has said again and again that she will not run in 2012 and is highly unlikely to run in 2016 (she'd be 69 on election day 2016, being one of the oldest Presidential nominees in recent history), the national polling clearly shows a desire for Clinton to return to elected politics.  Last month, I mentioned a Bloomberg Poll showing that a lot of Independents and Democrats wished that Hillary Clinton had won the nomination in 2008, saying they thought she could do a better job than Obama has. 

 I highly doubt that Secretary Clinton will challenge the President for the nomination.  Even if she wanted to, there is very little time before the Iowa Caucus and filing deadlines are fast approaching.  Though I believe Clinton could orchestrate a rapid and powerful campaign relatively quickly, we're at the end of October - there's just not enough time.  If Clinton did want to challenge the President, a more likely avenue would be a write-in campaign during the primaries.  Ensure that the ballots are split everywhere amongst the pledged delegates so Obama doesn't get the nomination outright and challenge him with pledged delegates at the Democratic National Convention.  A real floor fight could ensue.  

Of course, that's just wishful thinking on my part - a good dog fight is always entertaining.  Nonetheless, political observers are watching Secretary Clinton closely.  She could do anything, and more than likely succeed at whatever she does.  There's a reason pollsters keep asking the question, because despite the fact that she says no (which I believe she is sincere about), there's never any certainty in the world of Politics.

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