This past week there were dozens of stories across all
news outlets about possible new candidates entering race to be the Republican
Presidential Nominee in 2012. Former
Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and former
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee were mentioned in many of those stories. While it isn’t unusual to read about people’s
speculations on who will or will not run, it is telling right now, considering
that filing deadlines for Iowa and New Hampshire are quickly approaching.
To me, this means that the various factions within the
GOP aren’t happy with the current crop of candidates. I believe that the disarray in the Republican
Party could hurt their chances of taking back The White House in 2012.
Despite a recent Gallop Poll that puts a “Generic”
Republican candidate 4 points over President Obama, according to the most
recent polling on the declared candidates only Mitt Romney comes close to
challenging President Obama in 2012.
Romney’s problem is that many of the neoconservatives and Tea Party
activists do not like him. Since these
two groups make up the bulk of early Primary and Caucus voters, Romney’s
chances of getting the nomination remain in doubt – despite his appeal with the
Republican establishment.
Rick Perry has floundered in the debates, and despite his
strong backing from Christian Conservatives and some of the more conservative
Tea Party activists, he is not well liked amongst Independent Voters, who will
be key in the next election. His
terrible stammering in the last GOP debate was enough for some of his biggest
donors to jump ship – leaving his campaign struggling to raise more cash. While I believe he will probably have a
strong 2nd place showing in the Iowa Caucuses, he will more than
likely fizzle out before Super Tuesday.
No one believes Michele Bachmann will be the
nominee. Her recent statements about the
HPV vaccine and other inflammatory comments about President Obama and Democrats
in general are off-putting to a large swath of the electorate. I do believe she has an honest chance of
winning the Iowa Caucus. However, after
that, I don’t see any way for her to continue to win any other Primary states.
Herman Cain’s win at the recent Florida Straw Poll isn’t an
indication of a candidate’s rise, but more of an indication of continued dissatisfaction
with the current crop of candidates. He
has been trying to make hay out of the general notion that African American voters
pretty much universally vote Democratic.
Many of his statements on the issue turn off independents and African
Americans, making it unlikely for him to win a majority during the election. Also, his overall credentials are pretty
light as far as political experience is concerned, making him unattractive to
establishment Republican voters.
Jon Huntsman’s biggest issue is his moderate stance on a
host of issues. One Republican Operative
was quoted as saying Huntsman is “Obama-lite.”
His support of climate change legislation, cap and trade, and making a
clear distinction between church and state all but doom his chances in the
Primaries.
Ron Paul continues to be the “wild card” of Republican
politics. Though no one expects him to
win the nomination, his Libertarian views make him very attractive to a large
swath of the Republican electorate.
However, these same views when it comes to social issues make him very
unattractive to the neoconservatives and evangelicals. Ron Paul could be a viable 3rd
party candidate if the Republicans choose too conservative a candidate for the
Libertarian base. Though Ron Paul may
actually win a few states, it would almost certainly split the Republican vote
and ensure an Obama victory.
Rick Santorum will not be the nominee. There’s not much more to say about that. I believe the only reason he is in the race
at all is to make sure the voices of the ultra-conservative evangelical Christians
are not ignored during this campaign.
The speculation about New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
is fascinating and somewhat bizarre. He
said over and over again that he wasn’t running. People kept asking, he kept saying no. However, recent reporting over the weekend
has shown that several major donors and Republican Elders have been asking him
to run, and he is now considering it. No
new polls have been released since the rumblings about his possible late entry
into the race surfaced, but a USA Today poll back in June that included
Christie showed he tied with President Obama in a theoretical match-up.
Though there will be time for him to meet the filing
deadlines in the early Primary states, he doesn’t have any ground organizations
set up in Iowa, New Hampshire, or any other state – something the other
candidates have had for months. It will
be tough for him to get his message out and his organization set up in order to
have a real shot at the nomination.
Then, of course, there’s Sarah Palin. She still holds formidable sway amongst
neoconservatives, evangelicals, and Tea Party activists. However, her unfavorable ratings are quite
high amongst Independents and establishment Republicans. If she were to enter the race, I think it
would hurt the overall Republican field – since her negatives could end up suppressing
turnout of Independent voters. It may be
possible that she would be an attractive choice for Vice President if Romney,
Christie, or Huntsman won the nomination, however it would be seen as a repeat
of 2008, and the Republicans want a win this time.
Despite all of these issues, the Republican Party faces a
real danger of splitting the conservative vote if the nominee isn’t
perfect. If someone like Rick Perry or
Michele Bachmann wins the nomination, it is likely that moderate Republican
forces and Libertarians will rally around a 3rd Part5y challenger –
possibly Ron Paul or someone similar.
That would ensure an Obama victory since the Republican vote would be
split between the nominee and the 3rd party candidate.
If Romney or Huntsman get the nomination, regardless of
who they pick for their running mate, it is very likely that the
neoconservatives and the Tea Party activists will run a 3rd Party
candidate against the moderate Republican ticket. I could see Rick Perry, Pat Buchanan, or even
Michele Bachmann jumping to fill that spot.
Of course, that would end up splitting the conservative vote and ensure an
Obama victory.
I think a big part of the reason that Republicans are dissatisfied
with the current field of candidates is this very issue – no one seems to be
the person the whole party and all its factions can rally around. It used to be said that Democratic voters
fall in love with their preferred candidate and Republican voters fall in line behind
whomever’s turn it is to be the nominee.
It appears that the Republican Party is fractured enough that a little
love will be required to get the nomination this time.
The Question is: Who?
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